A problem in policymaking (as well as in life) is trying to predict the
future. Generalist policymakers relying on conventional forecasting methods
must aggregate across different sources to make a best guess of the future.
It is difficult for them to directly assess evidence and analysis of expert's
forecasts as experts are relied upon precisely for their expertise.
Prediction markets are a promising tool to incorporate different sources
of information into a single price in a credible and authoritative manner
by incentivising participants to correct any mispricing. In every known
head-to-head comparison with other forward-looking institutions, prediction
markets have been at least as accurate.
We have created a simple proof-of-concept of a prediction market that
allows users to create Yes/No questions that other users can bet on. In
parallel, we are also in talks with agencies to draft a list of policy-relevant
questions that will be shared on an existing prediction market, in order
to assess whether this could be a useful method of forecasting the future.